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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to embrace a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering statements of "serious repercussions" in August should Putin continued obstructing peace discussions, he eventually enacted considerable penalties on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This decision significantly hindered the Russian leader's capacity to support his war effort in the region.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, that was drafted by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU participation, Trump has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's initiative would in practice favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing the country's political freedom in peril. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative effectively compromise that essential sovereignty. This constitutes a Russian ideal would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate experience, Trump continues to consider the war as a simple land disagreement, like giving Russia a portion of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the leader. But, Putin's military campaign is not merely about controlling a destroyed region of industrial-devastated area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's obvious goal to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the accountable government that Putin's growing autocracy withholds them.

Border Concessions

While keeping in position the currently divided regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would compel Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding Russia with land that its troops have been failed to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this concession would make Ukraine's defensive positions critically weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that represent a key obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Putin a open route to the capital if he later choose to renew the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would make additional fighting simpler for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the size of its military from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, Trump's proposal imposes no similar constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as radicals, the plan states: "Any radical doctrine and activities must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by holding elections in his own country.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent treaties in the history – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied territory in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Russia now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western security guarantees. While the plan threatens a "immediate coordinated military response" should Russia resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars vary from fuzzy to troubling. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent member states from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the security presence, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Putin from restoring his weakened forces, rearming, and attacking again.

World Response

A separate parallel deal according to sources would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. Yet unlike a capable national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against renewed hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of alliance members, including Trump, to act with force to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not