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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.