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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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